Friday, April 28, 2006

New Goal + Rant For Gambling

Well originally I planned to see what I could do with 500 dollars just playing limit hold'em but I'm going to change that now. If I feel like playing no limit, i'll do that, if I feel like playing some sit n go's or tournaments then I'm doing that as well! Everything within my bankroll of course.I've been playing some no limit recently...I was down over 300 dollars, now I've worked that to a $-130 and am still going strong. It's a pretty easy game actually, I'm not too fond of it though because I hate getting suck outs and losing a lot of money, whereas in limit it's hard to protect hands but you also don't lose as much...usually. Few more days and I'm out of school and playing poker hardcore!
I had a dream that I won a big 3 dollar tournament. Big money!! ^^

I've decided that this summer I want to make 10k. My friends told me they'll be making around 3k so I think tripling that would be a good goal. Why am I putting this high of a goal for someone who's only playing .50/1 NL and 2/4 and 3/6 hold'em? Because my friends keep saying "gambling is gambling," "poker isn't a real job." They couldn't be more wrong.

It's one thing to go into the casinos and toss the dice or hit up some blackjack to try to make a living, but poker is different from that. It's played among people instead of the house - this is something my parents for some reason keep forgetting. What you normally try to do in limit is enter the pot with the best hand, the hand that'll win more than 50% of the time. Granted, even if you have an 80% chance of winning, there's still that 20% where you'll lose. But to say - oh well see that makes it gambling, just like craps and blackjack! - is a horrible argument. Gambling means to take a risk, a chance, to gain an advantage or benefit. We do that all the time in life.

Let's take a look at something more socially accepted, the stock market. This is most DEFINITELy a game of chance. Yes, you can leave your money in the index with the top companies of the world and in any 20 year cycle it'll out perform all stocks - that is a difference. But look at respected investor Jim "Mad Money" Cramer. His advice is SPECULATION. Taking gambles/risks on companies that will either fail and go bankrupt or soar up a 1000%. So how is it that he's consistently making money? He risks approximately 10% of his entire portfolio or "bankroll". So what now? He sees his target, he does his research, at least one hour a week per company. Punches in the numbers, checks the background for any good or bad news, and if the price is right, he invests.

This is pretty much what you do at poker! You enter the room, sit down, gather data on all the players, pick your cards that you want to bet into the pot with (invest), and while the hand is in play, analyze whether you have the best hand (bet) or fold and cut your losses.

And just like the stock market, you can't just play the cards, you have to observe your environment. While investing in other companies, you have to keep in mind what interest rates are and what trends are coming and going. The FED Reserve controls the interest rates and as they raise them, certain companies actually MAKE money while others will go down, and the same vice versa. In fact, Cramer has it down so well that he has a chart of which types of companies to invest in while these interest rates are fluctuating. And yes, even though that system is pretty mechanical, there is always a chance that the opposite happens and instead you lose money...but that's why you never risk your entire bankroll.

There was a period in cramer's life where he lost $90 million out of the $250 million he was managing. That's a 36% loss! Let's say you were friends with Cramer. Would you say "that's why you don't invest. It's gambling! You can't make money gambling!" or "That's tough luck man. But don't worry, you'll make it back. Just work hard " Yeah, those are some words I'll never hear from my friends when it comes to poker, lol. Realize that Cramer wouldn't be looked down upon, he'd have some sympathy and TRUST that he'd make it all back (which he did by the way, averaging $1.2 million a day for the rest of the year). That respect and trust is something that I think most non-poker players will ever have for me. I pray to be wrong here.

Anyhow, do I need to continue? If the hold'em game you're sitting at is wild and there's lots of money in the pot, drawing hands go up in value - you can limp in relatively cheap, see the flop, and if its good and you hit your cards, get paid probably 10 fold.

Poker is not a game that can be limped in with all other forms of gambling. Only shortsighted, ill-knowledged people would say that. And why? Because they probably can't beat the game. My best friend looks down on me because I play poker, and of course he continues to play even though he's a losing player. "I just can't beat the game" "I always get sucked out on" blah blah blah. I've taken many more suckouts than he has yet I've made over $1000 so far in 60 hours or less because I play within my bankroll that can take these swings and I take calculated gambles that are +ev (EV stands for Expected Value - when we "invest" with knowledge that over the long run it'll make money, we call that a +ev move).

I find it funny that some of my friends tell me I should get a job for summer. So you're telling me I should drop poker, which I've so far made $25 an hour at, and pick up a 9-5 shift that pays 9 bucks or less per hour? I did that last year at PetSmart and I never want to do that again. I want to work my own hours and preferably 40 a week, but if I can't make all 40, at least I won't get fired. It's just too advantageous, there's so much freedom to playing this game. For the people who've told me that I need to drop poker and get a REAL job, I think they need to re-evaluate their own lives and for that matter, logic. There is no logic in taking a $-16 cut per hour. If I did that, logically (and this is why logic is so bad, you can manipulate it to your argument), I'd be losing $128 a day not playing poker! That's HORRIBLE!

I'm sorry non-believers but poker is going to be a part of my life, not my entire life because I have other lifetime projects I want to pursue, but this is something I want to sustain me for awhile, until I find better...much much better, where I will still live free according to my will. But for now, this is my job and yes it's a real job. I plan to work 8 hours a day, 40 a week if not more during the summer. I don't have a gambling problem. There are times when I play even though I don't have a huge enthusiastic desire to but I do anyways because I know I can win. I'm taking this with the utmost sincerity. I'm very serious about this game. It's a gamble that can have a big pay off, and if I'm wrong, then there'll be this blog so you can laugh at my face ^_^

But...

for now...

I will not be the dog of society.

~Michael Song

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